One bag contains 4 white and 5 black balls. Another bag contains 6 white and 7 black balls. A ball is transferred form first bag to the second bag and then a ball is drawn from the second bag. Find the probability that the ball drawn is white.
A white ball can be drawn from the second bag in two mutually exclusive ways:
I. By transferring white ball from first bag to the second bag and then drawing a white ball from it.
II. By transferring a black ball from first bag to the second bag and then drawing a white ball from it.
Let E1, E2 and A be the events defined as follows:
E1 = a white ball is transferred from the first bag to the second bag
E2 = a black ball is transferred from the first bag to the second bag
A = a white ball id drawn from the second bag
Since the first bag contains 4 white and 5 black balls, we have
P(E1) = 4/9 and P(E2) = 5/9
If E1 has already occurred, that is a white ball has already been transferred from first bag to the second bag, then the second bag contains 7 white and 7 black balls.
So, P(A/E1) = 7/14
If E2 has already occurred, that is a black ball has been transferred from first bag to the second bag, then the second bag contains 6 white and 8 black balls. So,
